I just tried, bought 5 medium bombs (20-25 dmg) and yes it was only bad luck. My run wasn't great either but I had: 20dmg 23dmg !!! (power!! mouahaha) 20 21 20 so lol, yes it works, though sometimes you might wonder if it's broken
I also tried to fix the miss formula, I think now works better. Using a save with your super-party though, the enemies rarely hit the targets. I think I'll need to adjust the multiplier values for Hard difficulty maybe
with "super-party" you mean my normal build without fiddling with the weapon DB? interesting - my new party, with a similar system*, is quite hard to play with 0.8.6 (nerfed AoE but bugged miss/hit). I need much more potions to survive and advancing feels much more sluggish, because I have to revisit mansions much more often.
* with one huge caveat: Kira has as first two skills Into the Fray and Stun, instead of Wreak Havoc and Stun.
I think the damage for Into the Fray is too high. It's not an often used skill but I am nearly sure I just saw the second time with similar levels and enemies a damage preview of around 7 and an actual damage of ~ 10. The combat log claimed it was both times a normal hit and not critical.
Water Elemantal as boss in one of the noble trap rooms. It was paralyzed for two rounds. At the Elemental's turn (paralysis probably reduced to 1 round?) it uses Ice Shield (I kind of understand why bosses need different rules, so fine(ish) by me). But the paralysis debuff is gone and this shouldn't be happen imo.
About Into The Fray, the values seems OK - I cannot see how damage could be higher, it's possible the preview was somehow wrong. The Ice Shield is also a "normal skill" so it cannot be used if the target is paralyzed. Probably the paralysis went off and THEN, he used it. Otherwise it shouldn't be able to (but in that case it wouldn't work with any other skill since is normal like all the others).
I checked the magic sparks and at least here with mercenary guards works fine. All buffs are reduced by 1 for each target hit (I have a save just before I can use it to test). I am going to do an update later today mostly because I updated Ren'Py version, and while it should work like before, you never know
I think I found an explanation why the dmg preview for Fray is off: Is it possible that the calculation is based on the attributes of the guardian? This makes sense for all other attacks as they are redirected, but a little bit confusing for Fray.